2018 Outlooks
Our forward-looking views on global credit conditions and trends across various sectors and regions

Featured Sector Outlooks

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SOVEREIGN AND SUPRANATIONAL
Stable outlook for euro area sovereigns as cyclical recovery offsets limited reform momentum
15
Jan
2018

The euro area's economic recovery will continue in 2018 and become increasingly broad-based. However, governments progress with reforms to address long-standing structural issues and tackle elevated debt levels remains patchy.

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SOVEREIGN AND SUPRANATIONAL
Stable outlook for APAC sovereigns as upturn in growth balances high leverage
10
Jan
2018

Robust economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region will amplify the credit benefits of past reforms and drive further productivity-enhancing reforms.

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SOVEREIGN AND SUPRANATIONAL
Stable outlook for LatAm sovereigns as growth offsets rising debt and policy uncertainty
09
Jan
2018

While the economic recovery across Latin America is set to continue in 2018, debt levels will remain high given subdued government revenues and rigid public spending levels.

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Structured Finance
Global structured finance deal performance will remain strong despite some weakened underwriting
19
Dec
2017

Asset underwriting and transaction structures will generally maintain their post-crisis strengths amid signs of weakening and, combined with continued economic growth and stable financial systems, will bolster credit performance.

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Infrastructure & Project Finance
Outlook on transportation infrastructure and project finance stable or positive for all rated global markets
15
Dec
2017

Outlooks for every transportation infrastructure and project finance sector are stable or positive in all rated global markets, reflecting continued economic growth, supportive regulatory environments and healthy operating performance.

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Infrastructure & Project Finance
Outlook for global utilities sector stable, US unregulated power remains negative
15
Dec
2017

With the exception of US unregulated power, the outlook for the global utilities sector is stable for 2018, reflecting healthy debt service coverage ratios, supportive regulatory environments, and low power prices.

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Banking
Outlook for European banks is stable for 2018
14
Dec
2017

Steady growth in most European economies will support banks’ financial fundamentals, though low interest rates will constrain profitability improvements and some banks still hold large stocks of bad loans.

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Financial Institutions
Outlook for global asset managers changes to stable from negative
14
Dec
2017

The outlook change reflects the industry’s success in adapting to product, cost and technology challenges, as well as rising demand in an expanding economy.

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Structured Finance
US Consumer ABS asset performance will weaken in some sectors, despite support from growing economy
13
Dec
2017

Continuing US economic expansion will offer support for consumer asset-backed securities. However, collateral performance in some sectors is likely to weaken due to financial strains on certain borrowers and looser underwriting.

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Banking
Outlook for Asia Pacific banks is stable for 2018 on favorable macro conditions, steady solvency and liquidity
12
Dec
2017

Solvency metrics will be stable in most of the region’s banking systems, owing to a more synchronized economic recovery. Funding and liquidity will remain strong, and most governments are supportive of banks.

Global Banks Outlook

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Banking
Global banking sector will benefit from favorable credit conditions in 2018
06
Dec
2017

Banks’ capital and funding profiles are stronger, but profitability improvements will be modest and high private-sector debt and asset prices present downside risks.

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Global Macro Highlights

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SOVEREIGN AND SUPRANATIONAL
Stable 2018 outlook for global sovereigns as growth tempers high debt, geopolitical tensions
08
Nov
2018

Currently 74% of Moody’s-rated sovereigns have a stable rating outlook, reflecting a benign sovereign credit environment, with broad-based and sustained global growth of slightly over 3% of GDP likely in 2018.

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Cross-sector
Credit conditions will improve as global economy strengthens
15
Nov
2017

Global credit conditions will improve in 2018 as economic growth picks up, despite a buildup of financial stability and political risks. Longer-term credit challenges include new technologies, population aging and climate change.

Global Macro Outlook

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cross-sector
Global growth will be broad-based in 2018
08
Nov
2017

Stable global macroeconomic conditions in the year ahead will allow for broad-based economic expansion. Growth will be 2% for G20 advanced economies and 5.4% for emerging markets.

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contact us
AMERICAS
+1.212.553.1653
EMEA
+44.20.7772.5454
ASIA PACIFIC
+852.3551.3077
JAPAN
+81.3.5408.4100