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Moody’s Outlooks highlight our forward-looking views on global credit conditions and trends across sectors, countries and regions

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In an unprecedented year ahead for credit markets, register and gain exclusive access to a wealth of Moody's expertise in our series of virtual events, reports, podcasts, and infographics.

RECENT OUTLOOKS

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Global credit conditions will improve in 2021, aided by unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy support in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis. The initial rebound will give way to a multispeed recovery, with rising debt levels of companies and governments and business transformation spurred by rapid shifts in consumer and workplace behavior.
Anne Van Praagh
Managing Director, Global Strategy & Resear
Moody's Investors Service

Global Credit Conditions

Global credit conditions will likely improve in 2021
We expect the global economy to continue its recovery from recession in 2021, but global output is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2022. Moreover, economic activity will be uneven across countries and sectors, remaining dependent on effective pandemic management and government policy support.
Atsi Sheth
Managing Director - Credit Strategy & Standards
Moody's Investors Service

Global Macro Outlook

Nascent economic rebound takes hold globally but recovery will remain fragile.

The widespread fallout from the pandemic and the measures adopted by sovereigns to contain it have created an economic, fiscal and social shock that will last into 2021 and beyond. While weaker sovereigns will be hardest hit in the short term, we expect that sovereigns across the rating spectrum will face crisis-driven policy challenges over the medium term.
Alastair Wilson
Managing Director, Global Sovereign Risk
Moody's Investors Service
Negative

Global Sovereign Outlook 2021

Negative 2021 outlook as pandemic fallout weighs on economic activity, government finances, complicates policy choices.

Higher quality issuers, particularly in emerging Asia, will navigate 2021 fairly well, supported by strong economic or industry positions and healthy access to capital. But smaller governments and companies that have concentrated revenue streams or significant external funding requirements will endure another year of liquidity and, potentially, solvency stress.
Rahul Ghosh
Senior Vice President - Credit Strategy & Research, Moody's Investors Service
Moody's Investors Service

Emerging Markets – Global

Pandemic will leave lasting scars on credit quality despite tentative recovery.

Public health concerns and shifting work patterns will continue to depress mass transit ridership recovery in 2021. Ridership will grow about 30% but remain well below the levels necessary to balance budgets and incentivize critical government subsidies. Without added external funding, most systems will need to consider reducing service, increasing fares or deficit financing, which will further weaken their ability to generate revenue.
Baye Larsen
Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Public, Project and Infrastructure Finance
Moody's Investors Service
Negative

Mass Transit - US

2021 outlook negative as operating losses continue into 2022

Although travel demand has increased since its trough in the second quarter of 2020 and may continue to improve in 2021, our negative outlook reflects coronavirus’s ongoing risk to passenger demand and likely large operating losses into 2022. With limited prospects of a strong inflection in travel demand in 2021 unless countries lift quarantine restrictions and approved vaccines can be distributed, maintaining extended coverage of daily cash burn will remain paramount to outlast the wait for vaccines.
Jonathan Root
Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service
Negative

Passenger Airlines - Global

2021 outlook negative as operating losses continue into 2022

Podcast

Recent Outlook Connection Podcasts


FEATURED EVENTS
25 Nov

Virtual Event Wednesday, November 25 | 10:00 EST | 15:00 GMT

EMEA Leveraged Finance 2021 Outlook

This event is part of a three month Outlooks program which will provide insight and analysis on the key themes, sectors, and regions in what is set to be a fascinating year for the markets.

Upcoming On-Demand My Schedule

On Demand

State of Nations

Carmen Reinhart, Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank Group and Jin Liqun, President of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank join Moody’s analysts to discuss the strains to sovereigns’ debt sustainability and the role for governments post COVID.

On Demand

Emerging Markets Credit Outlook

How quickly will global and emerging market economies recover? Will financial conditions remain supportive? Will emerging market credit fundamentals stabilize?

Dr. Mohamed El-Erian, President, Queens' College, Cambridge and Chief Economic Adviser, Allianz

Live

25 Nov

EMEA Leveraged Finance 2021 Outlook

This event is part of a three month Outlooks program which will provide insight and analysis on the key themes, sectors, and regions in what is set to be a fascinating year for the markets.
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Live

01 Dec

Global Airlines 2021 Outlook

This event is part of a three month Outlooks program which will provide insight and analysis on the key themes, sectors, and regions in what is set to be a fascinating year for the markets.
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On-Demand

18 Nov

Sovereign Deep Dive: Russia, CIS & Turkey: Coronavirus growth and fiscal shock, political developments weigh on credit quality

  • Weaker fiscal, external positions constrain shock absorption capacity
  • Political tensions drive event risk
  • Quality of institutions a key credit differentiator

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On-Demand

18 Nov

Sovereign Deep Dive: Latin America’s key credit challenges exacerbated by the pandemic

  • Low post-pandemic GDP growth and delayed recoveries
  • Reduced fiscal space in the context of rising social tensions
  • Institutional capacity and funding costs as key credit differentiators

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