2021 Emerging Markets Credit Outlook
Join us as we hear from renowned speaker, Dr. Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, and senior Moody’s analysts on emerging and frontier markets' credit prospects.
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November 19 | 10:00 EST | 15:00 GMT | 90 min
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15:00
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15:05
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15:50
Prospects for EM Credit in 2021
- When will government focus shift from pandemic management to dealing with higher debt?
- What are the prospects for corporate earnings across sectors and regions?
- Will bank asset quality deteriorate meaningfully across developing economies?
- How will ESG and technology trends shape emerging markets in a post-COVID world?
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16:30
Speakers
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Rahul Ghosh is a senior vice president in Moody’s Credit Strategy & Research team. In this capacity, Rahul is responsible for the origination and publication of thematic research on global emerging market (EM) credit trends. In addition, Rahul leads Moody’s EM outreach strategy with market intermediaries and other relevant institutions both in EMEA and globally. He is a member of Moody’s global EM steering committee and global credit council.
Rahul is a regular participant at high-profile market briefings, external conferences and media engagements. He has presented on the impact of climate change on EM sovereigns at the G20 Green Finance Study Group, and the International Finance Corporation’s Global Debt Mobilization Conference.
Before his current role, Rahul worked in Moody’s environmental, social and governance (ESG) team, leading the company’s thematic and educational research on ESG and sustainable finance. Rahul also previously led cross-sector research for the Asia Pacific region, integrating top-down macroeconomic analysis with credit views across sovereigns, corporates, and financial institutions.
Prior to joining Moody’s in 2014, Rahul was the Head of Asia at BMI Research (Fitch Solutions) in Singapore, leading a team of macroeconomists and industry specialists in analysing sovereign risk, sector performance and the capital markets.
Rahul is an impact leader for Moody’s corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiatives, and a steering committee member of the company’s UK multicultural employee resource group. He holds a Masters degree in Economics from the University of Edinburgh.
Mohamed A. El-Erian is the President of Queens’ College, the University of Cambridge. Since 2014, he has served as Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he formerly served as chief executive and co-chief investment officer. He is Chair of Gramercy Fund Management, a columnist for Bloomberg View, and a contributing editor at the Financial Times, He serves on two corporate boards and several advisory committees and non-profit boards.
Dr. El-Erian first joined PIMCO in 1999 and was a senior member of PIMCO’s portfolio management and investment strategy group. He rejoined the company at the end of 2007 after serving for two years as president and CEO of Harvard Management Company, the entity that manages Harvard’s endowment and related accounts. Before coming to PIMCO, Dr. El-Erian was a managing director at Solomon Smith Barney/Citigroup in London and before that, he spent 15 years at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C. where he served as Deputy Director before moving to the private sector.
Dr. El-Erian served as Chair of President Obama’s Global Development Council from December 2012 to January 2017. He has published widely on international economic and finance topics. His 2008 book, “When Markets Collide,” was a New York Times and Wall Street Journal bestseller, won the Financial Times/Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year and was named a book of the year by The Economist and one of the best business books of all time by the Independent (UK). He was named to Foreign Policy’s list of “Top 100 Global Thinkers” for four years in a row. Since 2014, he has been serving on the jury for the Financial Times/McKenzie Book of the Year award. His latest book, published in January 2016, “The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability and Avoiding the Next Collapse,” is a New York Times bestseller.
Dr. El-Erian has served on several boards and committees, including the U.S. Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, the International Center for Research on Women, the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the IMF’s Committee of Eminent Persons and the New York Fed’ Investor Advisory Committee on Financial Markets. He is currently a board member of Barclays, Under Armour, the NBER (Executive Committee), Berggruen Institute (Executive Committee), and several educational institutions. In 2018, he was just appointed to the IMF’s External Advisory Group on Surveillance and MIT’s Visiting Committee for the Department of Economics. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Investcorp external committee and government advisory committees. Since 2007, he has been chair of Microsoft’s Investment Advisory Board and co-chairs the Capital Campaign for the University of Cambridge and its Colleges.
Recognized for his philanthropic contributions, particularly in the areas of education and health, Dr. El-Erian has received several awards, including lifetime achievement from the 57357 Hospital for Children/Egyptian Cancer Network where he is the Honorary Chair. Other recognition’s include the ABNA, Arab Banker of the Year, ACCESS Arab-American of the Year Award, Africa Investor’s Capital Markets Personality of the Year, Fixed Income Analysts Society’s Hall of Fame, Foreign Policy’s “Top 100 Global Thinkers” (4 years in a row), Investment News’ “Icon and Innovator,” Linked-In top 3 “voices” among its “influencers” (2016 and 2017), Louise Bloin Foundation Creative Leadership Award, Middle East Institute’s Visionary Award, Orange County Business Journal’s most influential personalities (multiple times), Ukleja Center’s Nell and John Wooden Ethics in Leadership award, and Worth magazine’s “100 Most Powerful People in Finance” (multiple years).
Dr. El-Erian holds a master’s degree and a doctorate in economics from Oxford University and received his undergraduate degree from Cambridge University.
Philipp Lotter is Managing Director – Global Ratings and Research,based in London. He is responsible for the development of MIS ratings and research opinions for global fundamental and structured finance ratings groups,and the delivery of services to issuers and the market.
Prior to assuming this role in November 2019, he was Global Head and before that EMEA Co-Head of the Corporate Finance Group.
Philipp has spent many years of his career abroad with strong Emerging and Developing Markets coverage experience. He spent more than 5 years in Asia, where he he ldthe dual role of Country Manager for Moody’s office in Singapore, as well as Managing Director of the Corporate Finance Group responsible for companies across Southeast Asia and India.
Before that, Philipp spent more than 3 years in Dubai, United Arab Emirates,where he was responsible for setting up the Moody’s office in Dubai and for the ratings of Middle Eastern corporate issuers across all sectors, including Islamic finance. Having joined Moody’s in London in 2003, Philipp started as an analyst covering utilities and the oil & gas industry.
Before joining Moody’s, Philipp spent 3 years in rating advisory at Citigroup.His career has also included positions at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in London and Frankfurt in rating advisory, bond and credit research, and leveraged financing. Philipp holds a Diploma from the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management. He has also attended international semesters at the European Business School in London and University College Dublin.
Rahul Ghosh is a senior vice president in Moody’s Credit Strategy & Research team. In this capacity, Rahul is responsible for the origination and publication of thematic research on global emerging market (EM) credit trends. In addition, Rahul leads Moody’s EM outreach strategy with market intermediaries and other relevant institutions both in EMEA and globally. He is a member of Moody’s global EM steering committee and global credit council.
Rahul is a regular participant at high-profile market briefings, external conferences and media engagements. He has presented on the impact of climate change on EM sovereigns at the G20 Green Finance Study Group, and the International Finance Corporation’s Global Debt Mobilization Conference.
Before his current role, Rahul worked in Moody’s environmental, social and governance (ESG) team, leading the company’s thematic and educational research on ESG and sustainable finance. Rahul also previously led cross-sector research for the Asia Pacific region, integrating top-down macroeconomic analysis with credit views across sovereigns, corporates, and financial institutions.
Prior to joining Moody’s in 2014, Rahul was the Head of Asia at BMI Research (Fitch Solutions) in Singapore, leading a team of macroeconomists and industry specialists in analysing sovereign risk, sector performance and the capital markets.
Rahul is an impact leader for Moody’s corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiatives, and a steering committee member of the company’s UK multicultural employee resource group. He holds a Masters degree in Economics from the University of Edinburgh.
Marie Diron heads the Sovereign Risk Group for Asia Pacific, the Middle East and Africa, and Sub-Sovereign Risk Group for Asia Pacific and EMEA. She is responsible for analytical teams covering more than 70 sovereign ratings, 15 Multilateral Development Banks and around 400 sub-sovereign ratings in about 30 countries.
Marie has worked as Moody’s lead sovereign analyst for a number of Asia Pacific credits, including China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, India, Sri Lanka and Australia. Marie has also worked in Moody’s Credit Policy, leading a number of macroeconomic analyses, including our regular Global Macro Outlook and other credit research work.
Marie was previously Director at Oxford Economics, leading the company’s forecasting and scenario analysis service to financial sector and corporate clients, after a number of years at the European Central Bank and Brevan Howard LLP. Marie received a MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge and graduated from the Ecole Centrale Paris.
Laura Acres is Managing Director for the Corporate Finance Group for Asia. Based in Singapore, she has overall responsibility for Moody’s corporate ratings and research for the region, managing teams in Sydney, Singapore, Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai and Tokyo.
Laura also spearheads our global Emerging Markets initiative, leading many of our aggregated research based publications in this space and helping to coordinate Moody’s approach to this large and growing area of focus.
Laura joined the company in 2006 taking a number of Lead Analyst roles for a variety of corporates around the region; she also created Moody’s aggregated high-yield research and outreach initiatives for the Asia Pacific region. She was appointed Managing Director in 2015 and led the Singapore based South & South East Asia corporate rating teams and was then appointed to her current role in 2020.
Before joining Moody’s, Laura worked for Schroders PLC in London and Singapore, and Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in Singapore, where she specialized in corporate restructuring and recovery throughout Southeast Asia. Laura holds a BSc (Econ) from the London School of Economics and Political Science.
Sean Marion is Managing Director in the Financial Institutions Group, based in London. He is responsible for Moody’s analytic teams that rate banks and nonbank financial companies in the Nordics, Baltics, South-Eastern Europe and emerging markets in Middle East and Africa. Prior to relocating to London in 2011, Mr. Marion held various positions of progressive responsibility in Moody’s, including working in the firm’s offices in Mexico City and Toronto.
Before joining Moody’s, Mr. Marion worked for The Economist Intelligence Unit, conducting research on macroeconomic and country risk. Mr. Marion holds graduate degrees in economics from the Université Paris I (Sorbonne) and the London School of Economics. He also holds an undergraduate degree from Bishop’s University, Canada.
Mr. Marion is fluent in French and Spanish.
Rahul Ghosh is a senior vice president in Moody’s Credit Strategy & Research team. In this capacity, Rahul is responsible for the origination and publication of thematic research on global emerging market (EM) credit trends. In addition, Rahul leads Moody’s EM outreach strategy with market intermediaries and other relevant institutions both in EMEA and globally. He is a member of Moody’s global EM steering committee and global credit council.
Rahul is a regular participant at high-profile market briefings, external conferences and media engagements. He has presented on the impact of climate change on EM sovereigns at the G20 Green Finance Study Group, and the International Finance Corporation’s Global Debt Mobilization Conference.
Before his current role, Rahul worked in Moody’s environmental, social and governance (ESG) team, leading the company’s thematic and educational research on ESG and sustainable finance. Rahul also previously led cross-sector research for the Asia Pacific region, integrating top-down macroeconomic analysis with credit views across sovereigns, corporates, and financial institutions.
Prior to joining Moody’s in 2014, Rahul was the Head of Asia at BMI Research (Fitch Solutions) in Singapore, leading a team of macroeconomists and industry specialists in analysing sovereign risk, sector performance and the capital markets.
Rahul is an impact leader for Moody’s corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiatives, and a steering committee member of the company’s UK multicultural employee resource group. He holds a Masters degree in Economics from the University of Edinburgh.
Mohamed A. El-Erian is the President of Queens’ College, the University of Cambridge. Since 2014, he has served as Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he formerly served as chief executive and co-chief investment officer. He is Chair of Gramercy Fund Management, a columnist for Bloomberg View, and a contributing editor at the Financial Times, He serves on two corporate boards and several advisory committees and non-profit boards.
Dr. El-Erian first joined PIMCO in 1999 and was a senior member of PIMCO’s portfolio management and investment strategy group. He rejoined the company at the end of 2007 after serving for two years as president and CEO of Harvard Management Company, the entity that manages Harvard’s endowment and related accounts. Before coming to PIMCO, Dr. El-Erian was a managing director at Solomon Smith Barney/Citigroup in London and before that, he spent 15 years at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C. where he served as Deputy Director before moving to the private sector.
Dr. El-Erian served as Chair of President Obama’s Global Development Council from December 2012 to January 2017. He has published widely on international economic and finance topics. His 2008 book, “When Markets Collide,” was a New York Times and Wall Street Journal bestseller, won the Financial Times/Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year and was named a book of the year by The Economist and one of the best business books of all time by the Independent (UK). He was named to Foreign Policy’s list of “Top 100 Global Thinkers” for four years in a row. Since 2014, he has been serving on the jury for the Financial Times/McKenzie Book of the Year award. His latest book, published in January 2016, “The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability and Avoiding the Next Collapse,” is a New York Times bestseller.
Dr. El-Erian has served on several boards and committees, including the U.S. Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, the International Center for Research on Women, the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the IMF’s Committee of Eminent Persons and the New York Fed’ Investor Advisory Committee on Financial Markets. He is currently a board member of Barclays, Under Armour, the NBER (Executive Committee), Berggruen Institute (Executive Committee), and several educational institutions. In 2018, he was just appointed to the IMF’s External Advisory Group on Surveillance and MIT’s Visiting Committee for the Department of Economics. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Investcorp external committee and government advisory committees. Since 2007, he has been chair of Microsoft’s Investment Advisory Board and co-chairs the Capital Campaign for the University of Cambridge and its Colleges.
Recognized for his philanthropic contributions, particularly in the areas of education and health, Dr. El-Erian has received several awards, including lifetime achievement from the 57357 Hospital for Children/Egyptian Cancer Network where he is the Honorary Chair. Other recognition’s include the ABNA, Arab Banker of the Year, ACCESS Arab-American of the Year Award, Africa Investor’s Capital Markets Personality of the Year, Fixed Income Analysts Society’s Hall of Fame, Foreign Policy’s “Top 100 Global Thinkers” (4 years in a row), Investment News’ “Icon and Innovator,” Linked-In top 3 “voices” among its “influencers” (2016 and 2017), Louise Bloin Foundation Creative Leadership Award, Middle East Institute’s Visionary Award, Orange County Business Journal’s most influential personalities (multiple times), Ukleja Center’s Nell and John Wooden Ethics in Leadership award, and Worth magazine’s “100 Most Powerful People in Finance” (multiple years).
Dr. El-Erian holds a master’s degree and a doctorate in economics from Oxford University and received his undergraduate degree from Cambridge University.
Philipp Lotter is Managing Director – Global Ratings and Research,based in London. He is responsible for the development of MIS ratings and research opinions for global fundamental and structured finance ratings groups,and the delivery of services to issuers and the market.
Prior to assuming this role in November 2019, he was Global Head and before that EMEA Co-Head of the Corporate Finance Group.
Philipp has spent many years of his career abroad with strong Emerging and Developing Markets coverage experience. He spent more than 5 years in Asia, where he he ldthe dual role of Country Manager for Moody’s office in Singapore, as well as Managing Director of the Corporate Finance Group responsible for companies across Southeast Asia and India.
Before that, Philipp spent more than 3 years in Dubai, United Arab Emirates,where he was responsible for setting up the Moody’s office in Dubai and for the ratings of Middle Eastern corporate issuers across all sectors, including Islamic finance. Having joined Moody’s in London in 2003, Philipp started as an analyst covering utilities and the oil & gas industry.
Before joining Moody’s, Philipp spent 3 years in rating advisory at Citigroup.His career has also included positions at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in London and Frankfurt in rating advisory, bond and credit research, and leveraged financing. Philipp holds a Diploma from the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management. He has also attended international semesters at the European Business School in London and University College Dublin.
Marie Diron heads the Sovereign Risk Group for Asia Pacific, the Middle East and Africa, and Sub-Sovereign Risk Group for Asia Pacific and EMEA. She is responsible for analytical teams covering more than 70 sovereign ratings, 15 Multilateral Development Banks and around 400 sub-sovereign ratings in about 30 countries.
Marie has worked as Moody’s lead sovereign analyst for a number of Asia Pacific credits, including China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, India, Sri Lanka and Australia. Marie has also worked in Moody’s Credit Policy, leading a number of macroeconomic analyses, including our regular Global Macro Outlook and other credit research work.
Marie was previously Director at Oxford Economics, leading the company’s forecasting and scenario analysis service to financial sector and corporate clients, after a number of years at the European Central Bank and Brevan Howard LLP. Marie received a MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge and graduated from the Ecole Centrale Paris.
Sean Marion is Managing Director in the Financial Institutions Group, based in London. He is responsible for Moody’s analytic teams that rate banks and nonbank financial companies in the Nordics, Baltics, South-Eastern Europe and emerging markets in Middle East and Africa. Prior to relocating to London in 2011, Mr. Marion held various positions of progressive responsibility in Moody’s, including working in the firm’s offices in Mexico City and Toronto.
Before joining Moody’s, Mr. Marion worked for The Economist Intelligence Unit, conducting research on macroeconomic and country risk. Mr. Marion holds graduate degrees in economics from the Université Paris I (Sorbonne) and the London School of Economics. He also holds an undergraduate degree from Bishop’s University, Canada.
Mr. Marion is fluent in French and Spanish.
Laura Acres is Managing Director for the Corporate Finance Group for Asia. Based in Singapore, she has overall responsibility for Moody’s corporate ratings and research for the region, managing teams in Sydney, Singapore, Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai and Tokyo. Laura also spearheads our global Emerging Markets initiative, leading many of our aggregated research based publications in this space and helping to coordinate Moody’s approach to this large and growing area of focus.
Laura joined the company in 2006 taking a number of Lead Analyst roles for a variety of corporates around the region; she also created Moody’s aggregated high-yield research and outreach initiatives for the Asia Pacific region. She was appointed Managing Director in 2015 and led the Singapore based South & South East Asia corporate rating teams and was then appointed to her current role in 2020.
Before joining Moody’s, Laura worked for Schroders PLC in London and Singapore, and Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in Singapore, where she specialized in corporate restructuring and recovery throughout Southeast Asia.
Laura holds a BSc (Econ) from the London School of Economics and Political Science.
Rahul Ghosh is a senior vice president in Moody’s Credit Strategy & Research team. In this capacity, Rahul is responsible for the origination and publication of thematic research on global emerging market (EM) credit trends. In addition, Rahul leads Moody’s EM outreach strategy with market intermediaries and other relevant institutions both in EMEA and globally. He is a member of Moody’s global EM steering committee and global credit council.
Rahul is a regular participant at high-profile market briefings, external conferences and media engagements. He has presented on the impact of climate change on EM sovereigns at the G20 Green Finance Study Group, and the International Finance Corporation’s Global Debt Mobilization Conference.
Before his current role, Rahul worked in Moody’s environmental, social and governance (ESG) team, leading the company’s thematic and educational research on ESG and sustainable finance. Rahul also previously led cross-sector research for the Asia Pacific region, integrating top-down macroeconomic analysis with credit views across sovereigns, corporates, and financial institutions.
Prior to joining Moody’s in 2014, Rahul was the Head of Asia at BMI Research (Fitch Solutions) in Singapore, leading a team of macroeconomists and industry specialists in analysing sovereign risk, sector performance and the capital markets.
Rahul is an impact leader for Moody’s corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiatives, and a steering committee member of the company’s UK multicultural employee resource group. He holds a Masters degree in Economics from the University of Edinburgh.