Passenger Airlines - Global | Moody's Outlooks 2021

OUTLOOK

Passenger Airlines - Global

2021 outlook negative as operating losses continue into 2022

Although travel demand has increased since its trough in the second quarter of 2020 and may continue to improve in 2021, our negative outlook reflects coronavirus’s ongoing risk to passenger demand and likely large operating losses into 2022. With limited prospects of a strong inflection in travel demand in 2021 unless countries lift quarantine restrictions and approved vaccines can be distributed, maintaining extended coverage of daily cash burn will remain paramount to outlast the wait for vaccines.

Jonathan Root

Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service

INFOGRAPHIC

Airline Turbulence

Recovery for passenger airlines still a multi-year proposition

Rising infection rates will suppress demand growth in coming months. We project 2021 revenue passenger kilometers will reach only about 40% of 2019's level of 8.7 trillion, which is roughly in line with our June slower recovery projection. We project rated universe revenue of $124 billion and $155 billion in 2020 and 2021, respectively, compared with $315 billion in 2019.

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Passenger Airlines - Global

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