Sector Outlooks

Moody's 2021 Outlooks provide forward-looking insight into the trends shaping global credit markets. From uneven recovery to social trends, our analysts explore the key themes underpinning sectors and regions in the year ahead.

About our Outlooks

Our outlooks reflect our view of conditions in global and regional sectors and subsectors for 2021. While we take a directional view of conditions for many sectors – positive, stable or negative – for others we do not. Some outlooks also contain views on multiple subsectors where our directional views differ, so a broad directional view is not available.

Cross Sector

Corporate Finance

Stable

Aerospace & Defense – Global

2021 outlook stable, supported by steady defense growth
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Stable

Automotive manufacturers and parts suppliers – Global

2021 outlook stable on expectations of car sales recovery
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Stable

Base Metals, Steel, Coal - Global

2021 outlooks stable, demand up from early 2020 lows
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Stable

Building materials - Europe

2021 outlook stable as EBITDA returns to growth
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Stable

Chemicals – Global

Outlook stable as resurgent coronavirus trims EBITDA growth trajectory
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Stable

Construction, Homebuilding and Building Materials – Latin America

2021 outlook mixed as public spending rebounds but homebuyer confidence varies
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Stable

Consumer packaged goods and beverages – Global

Our 2021 outlooks for global consumer packaged goods and beverages is stable.
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Stable

Consumer, Retail, Telecom - Latin America

2021 outlook mixed as region rebounds from very low base while telecom spending surges
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Positive

Diversified Technology - Global

Going positive as IT budgets recover and transition to the cloud continues
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Stable

Gaming – Europe

2021 outlook stable on expected rebound in EBITDA
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Gaming, Lodging, Cruise and Restaurants - US

2021 Outlook is mixed as consumers return to casinos and restaurants but cruise prospects remain negative
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Healthcare – Global

2021 outlook mostly positive as strong demand offsets lingering pressures from the pandemic
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Positive

Homebuilding – US

Outlook to positive with robust new orders, backlogs to produce solid revenue growth
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Positive

Latin America ‒ Protein and Sugar-Ethanol

2021 outlook positive as segments rebound on strong prices, high demand
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Leveraged Finance – EMEA

2021 Outlook - Cheap money will support issuance, but economic recovery is at risk
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Media – EMEA

2021 outlook mixed as pandemic takes toll
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Non-financial companies – India

2021 outlook stable on fragile economic recovery
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Stable

Nonbank financial institutions - APAC

We maintain a negative outlook for APAC finance companies in 2021 while changing the outlook for APAC securities companies to stable from negative
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Stable

Nonfinancial companies - China

2021 outlook stable as domestic economy recovers from pandemic
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Stable

Nonfinancial Companies – Asia (ex Japan)

2021 outlook stable with regional economic recovery
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Stable

Nonfinancial Companies – EMEA

2021 outlook stable on improved prospects for earnings
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Stable

Nonfinancial Companies – Indonesia

2021 outlook stable amid gradual economic recovery
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Stable

Nonfinancial Companies – Latin America

2021 outlook mixed as sectors adjust to pandemic
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Stable

Nonfinancial Companies – North America

2021 outlook stable as earnings rebound from steep declines Financial Institutions
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Stable

Oil & Gas, Base Metals & Steel, Pulp & Paper - Latin America

2021 outlooks mostly stable amid price increases, positive for pulp/paper
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Stable

Oil and Gas - Global

2021 outlook stable with modest gain for prices but still-limited capital investment
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Positive

Paper and Forest Products - Global

2021 outlook positive as rebounding economic activity drives earnings growth across all subsectors
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Negative

Passenger Airlines - Global

2021 outlook negative as operating losses continue into 2022
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Pay TV and Telecommunications – US

2021 outlook positive for cable, negative for telecom
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Negative

REITs and REOCs – US

2021 Outlook negative with retail, lodging weakness
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Stable

Retail – Europe

2021 outlook stable as demand recovery offset by online surge
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Stable

Retail & Apparel - US

2021 Outlook changed to stable in the fourth-quarter 2020 as the worst of the initial pandemic fallout started to ease
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Stable

Telecommunications – Asia Pacific

2021 outlook stable on revenue growth, steady EBITDA margins
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Negative

Telecomunications - Europe

2021 outlook negative on marginal revenue growth
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Stable

Tobacco – Global

2021 outlook stable on operating profit rebound
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Financial Institutions

Negative

Asset Management – Global

2021 outlook negative as coronavirus crisis intensifies long-term headwinds
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Stable

Asset Management – Latin America

2021 outlook stable as AUM growth resumes after pandemic shock subsides
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Negative

Banks - Asia Pacific

2021 outlook negative amid heightened asset risks
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Stable

Banks - Canada

2021 outlook stable
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Negative

Banks - Gulf Cooperation Council

2021 outlook negative as coronavirus and low oil price deal double blow
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Negative

Banks - United States

2021 Outlook is negative
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Negative

Banks – Africa

2021 outlook negative as tough operating conditions weigh
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Negative

Banks – Europe

2021 outlook negative amid slow economic recovery
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Negative

Banks – Global 2021 Outlook

The outlook for banks is negative as global recovery remains patchy and fraught with considerable risk.
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Negative

Banks – Latin America

2021 outlook negative amid rising asset risk, uncertainties around operating environment
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Stable

Closed-End Funds – US

2021 Outlook changes to stable as fund profiles prove resilient
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Negative

Finance Companies – Global

2021 outlook is negative
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Negative

Financial Institutions - China

2021 outlook negative
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Negative

Financial Institutions - Korea

2021 outlook negative on slow and uneven economic recovery
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Negative

Financial Institutions – Emerging Markets

2021 outlook negative as operating environments heal from pandemic and asset risk remains a wild card
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Negative

Financial Institutions – Japan

2021 outlook negative for banks and life insurance; stable for securities companies and P&C insurers
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Stable

Global Investment Banks

2021 outlook stable as diverse businesses, strong capital, liquidity and funding ease pandemic-related asset quality pressure
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Stable

Health Insurance – US

2021 outlook stable amid pandemic, technology and policy cross-currents
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Negative

Insurance - Europe

2021 Outlook negative due to persistent low rates and long-lasting economic effects of the coronavirus crisis
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Stable

Insurance – Asia Pacific

2021 outlook stable reflecting resilient performance, even as change lies ahead
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Stable

Insurance Brokers – Global

2021 outlook stable as brokers' EBITDA and cash flow withstand economic strains
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Negative

Life insurance - Global

2021 outlook negative as ultralow rates hurt profitability
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Stable

Life Insurers - China

2021 Outlook – Resilient profit and capitalization underpin stable outlook
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Negative

Money Market Funds – Global

The 2021 global market money funds sector outlook remains negative amid economic uncertainty.
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Stable

Mortgage Insurance – US

2021 outlook stable as housing market remains resilient in the face of headwinds
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Stable

P&C Insurance – Global

2021 Outlook stable on strong capital, commercial prices
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Stable

Property & Casualty Commercial Insurance – US

2021 outlook stable as price increases offset rising loss costs, low interest rates
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Stable

Property & Casualty Personal Insurance – US

2021 outlook stable as lower auto claims counterbalance costly catastrophes
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Negative

Reinsurance – Global

Our outlook on the global reinsurance sector is negative.
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Stable

Securities Firms & Market Infrastructure Providers – US

Our 2021 outlook is stable for exchanges and other trading and clearing venue operators; stable for retail brokers, and positive for market makers
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Project & Infrastructure Finance

Negative

Airports – Europe

2021 outlook negative on high degree of traffic uncertainty
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Negative

Airports – US

2021 outlook negative with high degree of traffic uncertainty, airline financial health
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Cyber Risk – Global

2021 Outlook – Cyber vulnerabilities in software supply chains, rising cost of ransomware will be key risks
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Stable

Infrastructure - Australia

2021 outlook stable as business conditions and confidence lift
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Stable

Power - Asia-Pacific

2021 outlook stable on stabilizing cash flows but regulatory difficulties remain
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Stable

Power - Asia-Pacific

2021 outlook stable on stabilizing cash flows but regulatory difficulties remain
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Stable

Power Companies – Brazil

2021 outlook stable on evolving market dynamics
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Stable

Privately Managed Toll Roads – Brazil

2021 outlook moves to stable on economic recovery expectations
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Stable

Public Ports - US

2021 outlook moves to stable as cargo volumes improve
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Stable

Public Power Electric Utilities – US

2021 outlook stable despite expected weaker financial metrics
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Stable

Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) - EMEA

2021 outlook stable, reflecting continued satisfactory performance
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Stable

Regulated electric and gas networks - EMEA

2021 outlook stable with sector playing a key role in green recovery
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Stable

Regulated Electric and Gas Utilities – US

2021 outlook stable on strong regulatory support and robust residential demand
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Stable

Regulated Electricity Distribution Companies — Brazil

2021 outlook stable despite lower-than anticipated demand
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Stable

Toll Roads - Europe

Outlook stable on gradual economic recovery and traffic rebound; risks remain
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Stable

Toll Roads – US

2021 outlook revised to stable as demand grows along with GDP and employment
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Stable

Transportation infrastructure and project finance - Global

2021 Outlooks largely stable as demand recovery takes hold
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Stable

Unregulated Electric and Gas Utilities – EMEA

2021 outlook stable as utilities remain resilient to the coronavirus pandemic
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Negative

Unregulated utility and power generation – US

2021 outlook stays negative as weak demand, gas surplus weigh on power prices
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Stable

Utilities and Power - Global

2021 outlooks mostly stable on supportive regulation and recovery in electricity demand
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Regional & Local Government

Negative

Estados Mexicanos

Perspectiva 2021 negativa, disminución de ingresos y liquidez
View on Moody's.com
Stable

Housing Associations - UK

2021 outlook stable, balancing high social housing demand against a volatile housing market
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Stable

Regional & Local Governments - France

2021 outlook stable on strong fundamentals and central government support
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Negative

Regional & Local Governments - Italy

2021 outlook negative on lower tax revenues and higher costs from coronavirus shock
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Negative

Regional & Local Governments – Brazil

2021 outlook negative on lower revenues, high personnel expenses and tight liquidity
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Negative

Regional & Local Governments – China

2021 outlook negative on uneven economic recovery, weak revenue growth and rising leverage
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Negative

Regional & Local Governments – Japan

2021 outlook is negative on lower tax revenues and higher financing needs
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Negative

Regional Governments - Argentina

2021 outlook negative on constrained liquidity and persistently challenging operating environment
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Negative

Regional Governments - Australia

2021 outlook negative on revenue pressures, rising debt burdens and persistent economic impact of coronavirus
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Negative

Regional Governments - Canada

2021 outlook negative on fiscal effects of coronavirus shock and risks to economic growth amid ongoing uncertainty
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Negative

Regional Governments - Russia

2021 outlook negative on fragile economic conditions and easing of fiscal discipline
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Negative

Regional Governments - Spain

2021 outlook negative on coronavirus-driven reversal of fiscal consolidation trend (Slides)
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Negative

Regional Governments (Länder) - Germany

2021 outlook is negative on coronavirus-driven fall in tax revenues and high countercyclical spending
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Structured Finance

 

ABCP - EMEA

2021 Outlook - Conduit credit quality and performance will remain robust amid the pandemic
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ABCP - US

Credit quality will stay strong, economic expansion will support stable issuance
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ABS & RMBS - Japan

2021 Outlook – Performance will be mostly stable but risks remain amid slow economic recovery
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CLOs – Europe

2021 Outlook – Collateral quality will continue to decline while structures adapt to downturn
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CLOs – US

2021 Outlook – With collateral still weakened, CLOs will incorporate flexibility for managing assets under stress
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CMBS – Europe

2021 Outlook – Coronavirus will amplify existing trends in the commercial real estate market
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CMBS and CRE CLOs – US

2021 Outlook — Starkly bifurcated recovery ahead for commercial real estate
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Consumer ABS – US

2021 Outlook – Weaker asset performance will weigh on deals as underwriting slowly normalizes from 2020 tightening
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Corporate ABS – US

2021 Outlook - Market prudence amid COVID-19 will aid new deal credit quality; strains on deal performance will persist
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Covered Bonds – Global

2021 Outlook – Policy measures will support credit quality next year but pose long-term risks
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RMBS - US

2021 Outlook – COVID-19 fallout will drive originators to uphold high standards, but weaken existing deals' performance
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RMBS and ABS – EMEA

2021 Outlook — Tight underwriting will aid new deal asset quality as coronavirus fallout spurs performance risks
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Structured finance - Brazil

2021 Outlook – Strong obligors, structures will uphold new deal credit quality; economic recovery will aid performance
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Structured Finance - China

2021 Outlook - Economic recovery will support asset quality and performance
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Structured finance - Mexico

2021 Outlook – New deal collateral will remain strong; economic recovery will benefit performance to varying degrees
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Structured Finance – Australia

2021 Outlook - Asset quality will be sound, but uneven recovery will hurt performance
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Structured finance – Canada

2021 Outlook - Quality will remain high for new assets, but elevated unemployment will erode deal performance
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Structured Finance – Europe

In 2021, the economic fallout from the pandemic will have mixed credit implications for European structured finance, with new deals benefiting from tighter underwriting, but existing transactions at greater risk of performance deterioration.
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Structured finance – Global

Speed and extent of recovery will vary by asset class and region, with pandemic weighing on performance
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Sovereign

US Public Finance