Themes

As the coronavirus crisis took hold earlier this year, we reassessed the credit profiles of rated debt issuers across sectors and regions. As described in our March publication, we identified sectors most exposed to the global recession and adjusted the ratings and ratings outlooks of issuers whose credit metrics will likely remain impaired.

The unfolding second wave of the pandemic threatens the fragile economic recovery across G-20 economies. Improvement in financial conditions has stalled in the euro area, and is slowing in emerging markets.

Even before the pandemic, which has strained healthcare systems and caused tragic loss of life, many US policymakers were focused on expanding healthcare access and affordability. With many states reporting increasing cases of COVID-19, healthcare is even more central to the policy conversation, and increasingly a topic of discussion ahead of the US presidential election.

The coronavirus pandemic will likely accelerate fundamental shifts in trade relationships globally and particularly in Asia. Ensuring supply security by enhancing the strength of supply chains will become an overarching objective of governments and companies, overtaking cost and efficiency considerations.

In the first half of this year, the extreme demand shock caused by the pandemic necessitated a deep and critical look at liquidity sources for all companies and an immediate reassessment of rating positioning for some.

The coronavirus pandemic-induced deterioration in growth and fiscal dynamics will leave most large emerging market sovereigns (EM191) with higher debt burdens over the next few years. Beyond the initial shock, exposure to commodities and tourism may have a longlasting impact on some EM19 economies and government finances.

For organizations, digital transformations will be an elevated priority as the pandemic demonstrated the benefits of technology investments in keeping businesses up and running

After the coronavirus pandemic's devastating effects on travel in the second quarter of 2020, we expect some improvement in the second half of the year, though with significant variation among regions and sectors.

The COVID-19 lockdown experience of reduced commuting and business travel, alongside better air quality and family time, may deliver lasting changes in energy consumption.

The €750 billion Next Generation EU (NGEU) recovery plan, if implemented as envisioned, will be credit positive for debt issuers in the technology and telecom, clean transport and green energy sectors in the recipient countries across the European Union (EU, Aaa stable).

The effects of the coronavirus pandemic will leave municipal market issuers facing competing priorities in their efforts to address the growing challenges posed by environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues.

Our outlook for the global pharmaceutical industry is stable. This outlook reflects our expectations for the fundamental business conditions in the industry over the next 12 to 18 months.